HOW IT WORKS
Global algo prediction markets. Bet on whether trading algorithms beat their benchmarks. Any asset. Any timezone. Settle in USDC.
The 3 Steps
01
Pick an Algo
Choose from 30 global trading algorithms across equities, FX, commodities and crypto. Each algo has fully public rules — anyone can verify independently.
02
Take a Position
Bet YES (algo beats its benchmark this week) or NO (algo misses). Pay with USDC on Base, Polygon, Solana or Hyperliquid. Minimum $1. No account needed.
03
Collect Friday
Markets resolve every Friday at 16:00 UTC. Winners split the total pool minus the 2% platform fee. Paid directly to your wallet. No middleman.
Payout Example
Market
SPY RSI-14 Momentum
YES pool
680 USDC
NO pool
420 USDC
Total pool
1,100 USDC
Platform fee (2%)
- 22 USDC
Winner pool
1,078 USDC
Outcome
YES wins (algo beat SPY)
Your stake
50 USDC on YES
Your payout
79.26 USDC (+58.5%)
Formula: (your_stake / winning_pool) × total_winner_pool
Weekly Schedule
MONDAY
30 new markets open
All algo markets open for the week. Betting begins immediately.
MON–THU
Bet anytime 24/7
Markets are open around the clock. Odds shift as more positions are taken.
FRIDAY
Markets close 16:00 UTC
No new positions after close. Final pools locked.
FRIDAY
Resolution after market close
Each algo's performance is checked against its public benchmark. Outcome posted on-chain.
WEEKEND
Winners paid
USDC sent directly to winning wallets. Check your positions page.
Supported Networks
Base
USDC · Gas ~$0.01
LIVE
Polygon
USDC · Gas ~$0.001
COMING SOON
Solana
USDC · Gas ~$0.001
COMING SOON
Hyperliquid
USDC · Zero fee
COMING SOON
Card / Fiat
No wallet needed
COMING SOON
Supported Wallets
MetaMask
Desktop + Mobile
Coinbase Wallet
Desktop + Mobile
Trust Wallet
Mobile
Rainbow
Mobile
On mobile: open your wallet app browser and navigate to hotswaps.xyz — or tap "Connect Wallet" and select your wallet to be redirected automatically.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is an algo prediction market? ▼
Instead of betting on elections or sports, you're betting on whether a trading algorithm beats its benchmark in a given week. For example: "Will the SPY RSI-14 momentum strategy outperform buying and holding SPY this week?" The algo rules are fully public — anyone can verify the outcome independently.
How are markets resolved? ▼
Every Friday after market close, each algo's weekly performance is calculated using its stated rules and public price data. The outcome (YES = beat benchmark / NO = missed) is posted and markets are settled. All resolution data is recorded on-chain for full transparency. In v1, resolution is performed by the HotSwaps team. A decentralised oracle is on the roadmap.
How do I get USDC on Base? ▼
You can get USDC on Base through Coinbase (withdraw directly to Base), bridge.base.org (bridge from Ethereum), or any centralised exchange that supports Base withdrawals. You also need a small amount of ETH on Base for gas fees (~$0.01 per transaction).
What is the 2% fee? ▼
HotSwaps charges a 2% platform fee on the total pool at resolution. This is deducted before winners are paid. Example: 1,000 USDC total pool → 20 USDC fee → 980 USDC to winners. This fee funds platform operations and development.
When do I get paid if I win? ▼
Winners are paid within 48 hours of Friday resolution — typically over the weekend. USDC is sent directly to the wallet address you used to place your bet. In v2 this will be fully automated and instant.
Can I bet on multiple markets? ▼
Yes — you can take positions on as many of the 30 open markets as you like. Each market is independent. Connect your wallet and bet on any combination of algos, assets, and regions.
What is the minimum bet? ▼
The minimum position is 1 USDC. There is no maximum. Quick amounts of 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 USDC are available in the bet modal.
Is HotSwaps non-custodial? ▼
Yes. HotSwaps never holds your funds permanently. USDC flows into the platform wallet at bet time and is returned to winners at resolution. All transactions are on Base mainnet and fully verifiable on Basescan. Your wallet keys are never shared with HotSwaps.
What algos are available? ▼
30 global algorithms across US equities (SPY, QQQ, IWM), European markets (FTSE, DAX, CAC40), Asia Pacific (NIFTY, Nikkei, Hang Seng, ASX, KOSPI, STI, Shanghai), commodities (Gold, Oil, Silver, Copper, Natural Gas), FX/macro (JPY, AUD/USD, CNY, GBP, EUR/USD), and crypto (BTC 200MA, ETH/BTC ratio, BTC funding rate arb). Full rules for each are publicly available.
Is this available in my country? ▼
HotSwaps is a decentralised protocol built on Base mainnet. It is accessible to anyone with a crypto wallet. Users are responsible for understanding their local regulations regarding prediction markets and financial instruments. HotSwaps does not offer services to US persons.
What is AEPP/1.0? ▼
AEPP (Agent Execution and Payment Protocol) is the open protocol standard that powers HotSwaps. It defines how agents are hired, how payments are verified, and how receipts are issued. The IETF draft is publicly available at
draft-agentir-aepp-02. HotSwaps is the first live implementation of AEPP/1.0.MONDAY MORNING INSIDER
30 algo markets. Every week. Free. Get the odds at open, last week's results, and the algo of the week — every Monday at 06:00 UTC.
Contact & Support
Email Support
support@hotswaps.xyz
Protocol
AEPP/1.0 IETF Draft
On-chain Verification
basescan.org
X / Twitter
@hotswapsxyz